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Hedged Model
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Hedged Model

S&P500 Chart

Illustrating the 3 levels of hedging dating back to March of 2001

Portfolio Performance Overlay

Total Performance Hedged Chart

Illustrating the 3 levels of hedging dating back to March of 2001

Great Depression 1928-1937

S&P500 Price Change Hedged Test

This is a rudimentary Hedged test applied on a monthly scale to the Great Depression period

Great Depression 1928-1937

Monthly Strategy Results

Extrapolated results using limited data on how the hedged strategy would perform during the Great Depression.

Hedged Strategy Details

9 Composite Models

Our strategy uses a combination of 9 composite models to determine the likelihood of downturns and major market turnarounds. These include Macroeconomic, Sentiment, and Technical factors that have been backtested to 1927. A couple of these composite models are only backtested to the year 2000, making it possible to create a 3 layered hedge model. Before this, a 2-layered hedge model. 


These composite models have around 10 factors within each. Out of 9 composite models: 3 are Bearish, 4 are bullish, 2 are a combination of bullish/bearish signals.


When used together, it creates an accurate read on current market conditions, and allocation amounts are distributed appropriately. 

Hedged Level Allocations

Buy

Level 1

Level 1

100% Buy Portfolio 


Level 1

Level 1

Level 1

80% Buy Portfolio 

20% UGL 2x (gold) 


Level 2

Level 2

Level 2

60% Buy Portfolio 

20% UGL 2x (gold) 

10% SRTY 3x (Inverse Russell 2000) 

10% SQQQ 3x (Inverse Nasdaq)

Level 3

Level 2

Level 2

40% buy portfolio 

30% UGL 2x (gold) 

15% SRTY 3x (Inverse Russell 2000) 

15% SQQQ 3x (Inverse Nasdaq)

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